The Curious Case of John Collins

By Brice Lewis

(Image from @ATLHAWKS twitter)

The Atlanta Hawks (40-31) are currently sitting at 5th right now in the Eastern conference. They go into their last game today against the Houston Rockets trying to control what they can and seeing how the playoff standings finish out. Hawks fans are currently awaiting to see how their team will fare in their first playoff appearance since 2017. The one player they're going to keep a close eye on?

John Collins.

During league stoppage due to Covid-19 pandemic, John Collins speaking to Sarah K. Spencer of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution said, "When we're talking max numbers and money I definitely (am in) the conversation to have earned that money with the Hawks specifically, but obviously I know there's business and we don't always get exactly what we want," but also went on to say "But I want to be a Hawk, I want to stay with the Hawks.” Hawks fans have been looking at everything that Collins has done this season very closely to try to decide if he is worth a max contract as he enters restricted free agency this off-season.

Collins was drafted in the first round by the Hawks in 2017 and in his first season had 10.5 points and 7.3 rebounds while shooting 57.6 percent from the field. Then made a dramatic improvement in the 2nd year in the 2018-2019 season bumping up his totals to 19.5 points and 9.8 rebounds a game. Then his 3rd year even with a 25 game suspension he bumped his totals up again to 21.6 points and 10.1 rebounds. This year his numbers are down to 17.7 points and 7.5 rebounds but that can be due to overall team talent being better and him not having to carry the load as much. The biggest Knock on Collins is his defense. According to Statmuse, Collins has a 112.6 Defensive rating which is 3rd on the team and Collins has always been a willing defender and underrated shot blocker with 1 block a game. Collins growth has been tied to Trae Young as they have became two core pieces of the Hawks team.

(Sky Sports)

Speaking of Young and Collins, earlier this year according to Chris Kirschner and Sam Amick of The Athletic reported that the two had a disagreement in a team meeting when Collins voiced his concerns about the offense running through Young. The team wasn’t getting out of offensive sets quick enough and he wanted to be featured more in the overall offense. The two downplayed the situation and as the year played out the two seem to be on the same page and clicking on all levels heading into the playoffs. Young and Collins actually rank in the top 4 in Highest Assist combos this year.

(Via: Baltej_Hoops, NBA on Espn on twitter)

Now I'll give 3 reasons why I think Collins should stay with the Hawks in my opinion :

1. He fits perfectly with Young and Capela. Collins and Trae pick and roll are one of the most effective in the NBA. According to NBA.com stats, The Hawks use pick and roll an average of 24.8 possessions a game. Then with Collins ability to stretch the floor helps Capela control the paint and their games compliment each other.

2. He is only 23 and only getting better. John has openly talked about improving his game and has done that. He's even shooting a 39% from 3pt range and has a all around offensive game. Then can still improve to be a better defender.

3. The Hawks do not have currently a player in my personal opinion who can replace the production and do the same things that Collins can do. Then I am not sure if there is someone in this years free agency class that can come in and replace him either.

To expand on point three, Danilo Gallinari has always had injury concerns and works better off the bench, Onyeka Okongwu has not developed a consistent mid range or 3pt shot, so the pick and roll wouldn't be as effective and easier to defend. Then I believe his game and Capela's game would struggle to mesh. Then I don't see the Hawks wanting to go small by putting Cam Reddish or De'Andre Hunter at the 4.

The focal point here is that if the Hawks front office does decide to not match an offer for Collins they better have a plan. The Hawks are now a playoff team and want to figure out the next steps to take to potentially take this team to the next level. Losing someone like Collins is a big risk. He is a essential piece of this team and you never want to risk setting the team back. There will be teams willing to offer Collins the max because they see his talent and potential. The Hawks just have to make sure the decision they make benefits the team as Hawks fan hope to see more winning basketball for years to come.

(All stats come from Statmuse, ESPN stat catalog, NBA.com, and basketball reference)