The Atlanta Falcons are entering the 3rd year of the Arthur Smith regime. This year they expect to have one of their most balanced offenses. They have spent their top pick in the draft in the last three years on the offensive side. They are expecting those picks and other additions to pay off this year. I will break down each position group on the offensive side of the ball and see the team's expectations for each group this season.
Quarterback
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Desmond Ridder will be QB1 for the team this year, and coaches expect him to make a jump. In the final four games of the season last year, Ridder had 708 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions and a 49.8 QBR. The Falcons went 2-2 in that stretch, and Ridder improved each game. He is probably the most significant question mark on this offense, but he gets an entire offseason to improve and develop. I think not many people are asking what expectations Smith has for Ridder. I don't believe that with how the offense is constructed, they will ask him to throw the ball forty-plus times and have 3-hundred yards per game. Instead, they will want him to play efficiently, don't turn the ball over, be able to complete a couple of throws down the field, and, most of all, just be consistent. The issue with Marcus Mariota last year while starting for the team was his inconsistency. That hampered the passing game, which led to the team having the 31st-ranked passing attack. The team expects that to improve along with Ridder showing strides which could set him up for a solid year two in the league. Ridder will put in work, but now we'll see if it translates to success.
The Falcons also added Former Washington Commanders Quarterback Taylor Heinicke as the backup. Heinicke brings over veteran experience and has won games in the league and even started a playoff game. Falcons believe if Ridder gets hurt or struggles, they could turn to him and be able to win games still.
Running backs
The running back position is considered the strength of this offense by far. They had the number two rushing attack last year with a returning Tyler Allgeier who has the Falcon's rookie rushing record, and the always-dangerous Cordarrelle Patterson. In addition, they added the 8th pick in this year's draft Bijan Robinson, who some consider one of the best overall players in this past draft. Robinson could be in line to break Allgier's rookie rushing record this year. Smith plans to use Robinson everywhere and in different formations, from running back to receiver. Robinson is considered a home-run hitter, and with him and Allgeier, it reminds me of LaDainian Tomlinson and Michael Turner with the Chargers or a Chris Johnson and Ladale White duo. Patterson will be a big wild card after being the primary rusher the last two seasons; injuries have slowed him down. Now, he won't be asked to carry the load, and we may see him return to more of a receiver role this year.
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Now, Caleb Huntley, who was a part of the running back rotation last year before going down with an Achilles tear, has no timetable for his return. He may start the year on the PUP list until he gets back to full strength; then the next question would be, does he end up making the roster? The Falcons kept four running backs last year, but would they again this year? Then that leads me to Avery Williams, who has found a role the previous two years as a return specialist but switched to running back last year. The team will unlikely keep five backs, so who could be the odd man out? Huntley and Williams bring value to the team differently, but we'll see what vision coach Smith has for that entire position group. One of them could be practice squad bound.
Wide Receivers
The wide receiver group is an interesting one with a different cast of characters this year from last year. The top draft pick from last year's draft, Drake London, is entering year two wanting to build on his success a season ago. He already has strong chemistry with QB Desmond Ridder, and the team expects that connection to improve both players. A thousand-year season should be in the cards for London if he can stay healthy. Then we get to a couple of new additions; six-year-pro Mack Hollins joins the team from the Las Vegas Raiders. He had a career-high in catches and yards last season to go along with four touchdowns. As of now, he is looking like the likely WR2 for the team and is looking to build off last season to show it wasn't a fluke. He is a big target at 6"4 and a solid blocker which coach Smith values in his receivers. Then they also added former Buccaneers player Scotty Miller to the group. He is a speedy receiver coming off a couple of down seasons in Tampa. His best year was 2020, when he had over 500 yards and three touchdowns. Since then, he hasn't scored a touchdown and is looking to make an impact with the Falcons this year, returning closer to how he played back in 2020.
After that, the rest of the group is up in the air. They resigned KhaDarel Hodge, last season's preseason standout Jared Bernhardt is back, they just signed Penny Hart from Seattle, and a couple of undrafted players, with Buffalo's Justin Marshall standing out from that group as a potential sneaky good pickup. The Falcons will probably keep up to five receivers, leaving two spots available after London, Hollins, and Miller. So, the competition at the receiver position will be fierce, and maybe someone can stand out, as this is an ample opportunity for someone to step up and seize a spot. Of course, this assumes the Falcons don't add anyone else during the rest of the offseason, or no one gets hurt.
Tight End
The tight end spot for the Falcons could be one of the gems of the offense this year. The team is looking for Kyle Pitts to stay healthy and have a big season into year three. In his 1st year, he had over a thousand yards but only one touchdown. Then he only played in ten games this past season and wasn't productive as expected. Now, that is due to not being on the same page with Mariota, but also, Pitts wasn't a vital part of the offensive game plans since the team switched to a more run-dominant approach. In year three, the belief is this is Pitt's breakout year, and he will return closer to the thousand yards he had in his rookie year and continue to increase his number of touchdowns. Ridder and Pitts must work closely to ensure they are on the same page.
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The Falcons also added Jonnu Smith this year, who may be one of the team's more underrated signings this offseason. Smith is a solid blocking tight end with strong receiving skills as well. His best year was 2020; when Arthur Smith was the offensive coordinator in Tennessee, he had 41 catches, 448 yards, and eight touchdowns. He is now looking to return to that type of success after reuniting with coach Smith. The Falcons should utilize the Pitts and Smith duo in the red zone. Pits and London will probably get the attention so that Smith could have a good year for the team. Guys like Parker Hesse, John Fitzpatrick, and Felipe Franks will compete for that last spot in the tight-end group.
Offensive Line
The offensive line for the Falcons took a big step last year, having one of the best rushing attacks. They allowed thirty-seven sacks the previous year, down only three from the 2021 season. Smith expects this group to continue to improve in that department to get that number even lower this year. First, they made right guard Chris Lindstrom the highest-paid guard in the league. Then they got right tackle Kaleb McGary back at the price they wanted and kept the right side of the line intact. Then you still have steady veteran Jake Matthews back again to protect the Quarterback's blindside.
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The biggest questions of this line were the left guard and center spot. With their 2nd round pick, the Falcons took Matthew Bergeron out of Syracuse. Bergeron is a tackle who projects to a guard at the next level. Ian Cummings of Pro Football Network said this about the Guard " If the draft evaluation is projecting what players can be, then Bergeron has one of the most exciting ceilings in the 2023 NFL Draft. His all-encompassing skill set offers scheme and alignment versatility. At his peak, Bergeron can be an impact NFL starter, with the flexibility to play both tackle spots or slide inside to guard. " So, the team believes he will help be a mainstay in that left guard spot and potentially could be shifted to tackle in the future. Center will have Drew Dalman, who seems to be the man again, to start. He had an overall PFF grade of 65.9, which you would probably want to see get into the 70s this year. Matt Hennessy was the backup last year after being the starter during the 2021 season.
One player who could be a wild card could be 7th-round pick Jovaughn Gwyn out of South Carolina. He is a guard who can also play some center so he could be in play for the backup center spot to Dalman. If that happens, it now puts Hennessy in the bubble. Germain Ifedi was released by the team recently, and Ryan Neuzil and Jalen Mayfield are back, so the backup spots could also have some good competition. Mayfield will also be under the spotlight after not playing last year and struggling mightily in his rookie year. So, he could be another lineman on the bubble. The Falcons could add to the O-line again this offseason, especially at tackle, if guys like Ethan Greenridge and Joshua Miles don't look good during camp. The offensive line is a trademark of Arthur Smith, and he expects that group to stay physical and ready.
The biggest questions I have for the Atlanta offense is:
How will Desmond Ridder progress with an entire offseason and season?
How with Arthur Smith use guys like Bijan and Pitts within the offense to help them be effective?
Will the Offensive line continue to build off a solid year last year?
The Falcon's offense has a ton of potential to be one of the better offensives Arthur Smith has had since being hired. First, of course, he has to put it all together in a year where the team's success could affect his job status. But the talent is there, and now we wait until they can suit up again to see the results. Of course, the Falcons could still make moves and changes between now and the start of training camp, but this offense should be fun to watch this season.
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