Offensive Blues

(Photo of Kyle Pitts TE for the Falcons at @TE_university, @AtlantaFalcons)

The Atlanta Falcons have made some changes to this team starting with hiring former Tennessee Titans OC Arthur Smith. This is the first time during the Matt Ryan era they have had an offensive head coach. They drafted with the 4th overall pick in this year's NFL Draft Kyle Pitts, who is viewed as a generational tight end. They also picked up former Panthers running back Mike Davis to man the running game. There was one big subtraction, however, as they traded away 7 time Pro Bowl and All Pro Wide Receiver Julio Jones. So the question is, what should Falcon fans expect from offense this season?

Julio was such a big threat for this team and created openings for other players to have great games, even if he didn't have the best game. The successor to Jones will be Calvin Ridley. In 15 games last season, Ridley put up 90 catches, 1374 receiving yards, and 9 TDs, resulting in the Pro Football Focus rating him at a 92.8 grade, which is in their elite category. So, it seems the Falcons have the WR to replace Jones at least from a production standpoint. Ridley is also in a contract year, so having another big season will get him paid next off-season. They also have Russell Gage who had a breakout season last year with 72 catches, 786 yards and 4 TDs, and will be sliding into that number 2 spot. Falcons also signed Tajae Shape this off-season, who is familiar with Arthur Smith as he was there while Smith was the OC in Tennessee. The Falcons then drafted Frank Darby from Arizona State this year as a sixth-round pick, who some fans think may be able to make some noise. The Falcons have been able to find up-and-coming receivers the last few years, so there's no reason to think why think that wouldn't be the same this year.

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Then we get to Kyle Pitts, who many feel like is under pressure to be the player everyone thinks he can be, especially with Jones gone. Pitts is 6'6 and runs a 4.44 forty and is looked at as a giant mismatch for many defenses as they try to figure out how to defend him. And we can't forget about Hayden Hurst, who will be the 2nd TE in the equation as well. He posted 56 catches, 571 yards, and 6 TDs in his first season with the Falcons. If you look at the receiving core of the Falcons, it looks like there is a lot of talent and potential with this group. If this talent reaches that potential, then the Falcons passing offense may be able to keep humming even post Jones. I expect a lot of 3WR and 1TE sets this year featuring either Pitts or Hurst in the slot or outside with the other one playing on the line to create mismatches. Then also 12 personnel to be featured especially in the red zone. These two will be key for the success of the Falcons in the red zone.

(@MikeDavisRB, Atlanta Falcons Photo)

The running back position underwent a big overhaul this offseason as they signed Mike Davis, signed undrafted free agents Caleb Huntley, and Javian Hawkins then we can’t forget Qadree Ollison, who is the longest tenured back on the team. Ollison may be the dark horse out of all the backs. Davis had 642 yards on the ground and 6 TDs, while averaging 3.9 yards per carry for the panthers last season. He also showed he can be effective out of the backfield with 59 catches and 373 yards, which I believe is a very underrated part of this game. He will be the lead back this year for the Falcons who are hoping it will be an upgrade over Todd Gurley and Brian Hill. Now, I think Hawkins and Huntley have a good chance this year to see the field and be productive as that number 2 running back spot is wide open. Hawkins is most interesting as he averaged over 100 yards a game in 7 games at Louisville before opting out the rest of the 2020 season, but he set a Louisville single rushing record with 1,525 rushing yards in 2019. The Falcons are going to need production from all their rookies this season and those 2 are certainly players I'd keep an eye on at the running back spot.

Next we get to the Falcons offensive line, and I'm going to focus on two spots in particular: the Center and Left Guard spot. Jake Matthews at LT, Chris Lindstrom at RG, and Kaleb McGarry at RT are projected to be Locked into those spots and hopefully play well and are consistent. The other two spots have big position battles going on that could help or hurt the overall play of the O-Line. The center spot has a battle going on between Matt Hennessy and 4th round draft pick Drew Dalman from Stanford. You can also throw Josh Andrews in there too. Dalman has the ability to play guard and center, so he has 2 spots he could potentially play at. At left guard, Matt Gono was recently injured, so that opens the door wide open for Rookie Jalen Mayfield, Dalman or Andrews to also play at the spot as well. This is of course assuming the Falcons don't sign anyone between now and the start of the season or more injuries occur. The biggest thing for the Falcons is, whoever starts at those spots needs to be consistent with their play. The O-line will be key for what Smith wants to do with this offense and keeping Matt Ryan upright this year. The Falcons may look at recently released David DeCastro from the Steelers if they feel they need to upgrade the interior of the line, and if he gets those ankle issues worked out.

Matt Ryan, who is a very polarizing player in the Falcons fan base, will now have an offensive HC for the first time in his career. Smith runs a very similar system to what Kyle Shanahan ran when Matt had his MVP year. The thing we have seen with Ryan is sometimes, in the first year of a new system, he has growing pains. In the 2nd year of the system is when he booms and has a great season. So, it will be interesting to see if that trend continues or if he will be able to stay productive even in the first year because of some familiarity between Smith and Shanahan's system. One thing that will be something to keep an eye on this season is this: with no Jones, I believe Ryan and Smith will have a system that gives the ball to the best matchup. So you may see different guys this year in different games having big games. When you don't always have that All-Pro receiver like Jones, you won't key in on one guy. We saw under Shanahan, especially in that 2nd year, how Jones could only have 2 or 3 catches while the offense still put up 30+ points and 400+ yards because the system was designed to take advantage of the best matchup. Ryan has shown he is very much capable of that, so he could be in for a big year, since the Falcons still have many weapons he can throw the ball too.

(TheFalconsWire.USAtoday.com, Matt Urben, Atlanta Falcons)

So, the three biggest things that need to improve for the Falcons to be successful are:

• Improved rushing attack as the Falcons ranked 30th and 27th in the last 2 seasons

• Improved Red Zone offense as the Falcons often stalled, having to settle for Field goals. Smith, with the Titans, was 2nd in 2020 and 1st in 2019 in the Red Zone scoring when it came to Touchdowns

• More consistent offensive line play up front.

The Falcons have tried to address all 3 of those areas this off-season with limited cap space and draft picks. The hope is Coach Smith's new scheme will help players excel within the offense, while also helping close out games better and stringing together first downs when needed. They are going to need good health as that has also been a problem on the Falcons the last few years. I said earlier many young players are going to get chances to play and produce early, in my opinion. So, if everything works out the Falcons offense should be a top 10 offense and be a reason why they push for a playoff spot in 2021.

If you missed it check out my latest Atlanta Falcons Fan Show : Atlanta Falcons Fan Show 9 - YouTube

(cover photo from Atlanta Falcons) (all stats from ESPN.com)